AI & the Capex Cycle

A businessman in a blue suit pointing at a glowing, digital microchip interface featuring a money bag icon, surrounded by circuit board lines and financial symbols against a blurred, dark blue technology background.

Is the AI spend cycle a massive opportunity—or a mounting risk?

AI-related capital spending has tripled over the past five years, with just five balance sheets now accounting for roughly 30% of market-wide capex. In our latest research paper, “AI & the Capex Cycle,” we analyze historical precedents for this level of spending, the returns required to sustain it, and where the margin of safety stands if the cycle normalizes.

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